Question
Problem 2. Let G be the event that the accused of some crime is guilty, and E the event that a certain evidence is found at the crime scene. The prosecutors fallacy is to assume P(GE) PE G). (i) Prov...
Problem 2. Let G be the event that the accused of some crime is guilty, and E the event that a certain evidence is found at the crime scene. The prosecutors fallacy is to assume P(GE) PE G). (i) Prove that this is true if and only if P(G) P(E). i) Explain the name "prosecutors fallacy". (Not really a math question; please keep your answer concise.)
Answers
2. ii) Prosecutor's fallacy is a simple misunderstanding of conditional probability.
The jury must actually decide the following: “What is the probability the defendant is innocent given that the evidence is found or he matches the description of an eyewitness?” That’s different from the question “What is the probability the defendant matches the evidence found or the eyewitness's description given that he is innocent?” A good prosecutor could easily make the two sound the same. And that is why the name Prosecutor's fallacy. As we have seen in the mathematical proof also, this is true if and only if(G) = P(E)Byed theorem, we getPl6 and E PE and 6)
2. ii) Prosecutor's fallacy is a simple misunderstanding of conditional probability. Similar Solved Questions
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