## Question

###### Using the data below, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the 4th week where...

Using the data below, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the 4th week where a=0.4? Week Time Series Value 6.00 4.00 3.00 Submit Answer format: Number: Round to: 1 decimal places. Using the data below, what is the value of MSE? Month Actuals Forecast 4.00 8.00 4.00 5.00 Submit Answer format: Number: Round to: 2 decimal places.

## Answers

Answer 3:-

The exponential smoothing forecast with smoothing constant α=0.4 for the 4th week is computed using the following formula :-

Note*= here is two different methods to solve the sum .

First method=Fn =Ft+α (At-Ft)

Week Time series value SES forecast 1 6.00 F1 =A =6.00 2 4.00 F2= F1+α (A1-F1) = 6+0.4(6-6) =6 3 3.00 F3 = F2+α (A2-F2) = 6 +0.4(4-6) = 5.2 4 3.00 F4 = F3+α (A3-F3) = 5.2+0.4(3-5.2)= 4.32

Second method :-α (previous period actual) + (1-α) previous forecast

Week Time series value SES forecast 1 6.00 6.00 2 4.00 0.4(6)+(1-0.4)*6 = 6 3 3.00 0.4(4) + (1-0.4)*6 = 5.2 4 3.00 0.4(3) + (1-0.4)*5.2 = 4.32 So 4th week forecast is :-

Week Time series value SES forecast 1 6.00 6.00 2 4.00 6 3 3.00 5.2 4 3.00 4.32

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