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###### 10. Anton, Betty, and Carl have been serving time for grand theft auto (stealing a car)....

10. Anton, Betty, and Carl have been serving time for grand theft auto (stealing a car). Rumor has it that the warden plans to release two of the three next week. They all have identical records so two will be chosen at random. That means each prisoner has a 2/3 chance of being released. Anton is friends with a guard who will know ahead of time which two will leave. The guard offers to tell Anton the name of one prisoner other than himself who will be released. Anton declines the offer, believing that if he learns the name of one prisoner scheduled to be released, then his chances of being the other person set free will drop to one-half since only two prisoners will be left at that point.) Is he correct? Show the math for why or why not.

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